Despite a Horrible Campaign, Johnson May Win This

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Adam Struck | Bio

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From the very beginning of his campaign, Kevin Johnson had everything going for him.

Hometown star. Successful entrepreneur. Famous friends with deep pockets. An opponent with few accomplishments to speak of and no viable opponent standing between her and a third term.

Yet Johnson has somehow managed, through misstep after misstep, to all but squander the good fortune of having a victory that could well have been handed to him on a silver platter. Any other candidate would have been left for dead by now. But somehow Johnson’s campaign has remained afloat, and it looks as if he will bring an end to the lackluster reign of Fargo less than two weeks from now.

Business and law enforcement have lined-up behind him, as has the editorial board at the Sacramento Bee, which typically has little problem defending Sacramento’s parochial political establishment. Driving around the city, one notices many more yards sporting Johnson’s signs than Fargo’s, and if signs are an effective gauge of a campaign’s success—and they often are—he enjoys considerably more support from city voters than does the two-term incumbent.

A successful campaign is often about being in the right place at the right time, a situation almost certain to guarantee victory when the candidate is a celebrity with virtually unanimous name identification. Johnson is that candidate in that exact situation.

Voters are hungry for new leadership in Sacramento. With crime rising, the city’s budget in shambles, and City Hall failing to provide any sort of vision for the city’s future, Johnson is fresh blood, a political outsider who hasn’t been tainted by years of bureaucracy. The Fargo camp knew the score from day one, hence the numerous attacks on Johnson’s character and ethics, some unfounded, others more than accurate.

It is certainly appropriate to question Johnson’s ability to lead the city in light of the many questions about both his past and his business activities as well as the many blunders he has made. If a candidate cannot run a successful campaign or operate his entrepreneurial ventures in a legal and ethical manner, it is only reasonable to assume that he cannot effectively lead a city of 450,000.

But the hometown star from Oak Park has managed to dodge virtually all of the many bullets fired at him. The moment it appears his campaign is headed for imminent collapse, Johnson fires back and even manages to secure another endorsement or two. It should have been over for him a long time ago, yet the campaign has endured and he remains very much in contention.

The bottom line is this: voters are ready to put an end to the same tired, lackluster leadership. They see a hometown hero who has accomplished great things in his old neighborhood, long considered one of the city’s worst slums. They know this city has an abundance of untapped potential as well as great challenges in every area from crime to flood control.

When city residents walk into their polling places 13 days from now, this is what they will base their vote for mayor on, for better or worse. Johnson is an imperfect challenger, but it is Fargo’s record that is on trial. Matched against Johnson’s celebrity, that record will likely end November 4. It will not be the landslide it could have been, but Johnson will emerge the victor, no thanks to—and perhaps in spite of—his pitiful campaign.

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Comments

Steven Maviglio wrote on October 23 2008:

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Adam—what “horrible” campaign are you talking about? I’ve worked in politics for 20 years and never seen a candidate take so many hits and still be in the drivers seat. Perhaps that we’re running an issues-oriented, positive campaign must seem horrible to you (no negative ads, no negative mail) but the people of Sacramento are responding in a big way.

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Adam Struck wrote on October 23 2008:

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Steve: With all due respect to you and your candidate, I can think of several embarrassing things that don’t exactly portray a top-notch campaign: the Bloomberg gaffe, fudging the gay marriage issue, shielding the candidate from tough media questions for so long, etc. Too often KJ has appeared unprepared and uninformed, bumbling I would say. You can’t chalk all this up to the mistakes of an inexperienced politician...that’s what campaign management is supposed to prevent.

Yes, your campaign has been positive and certainly much more issues-oriented than your opponent’s, and I commend you for that. But my statement has nothing to do with whether or not you went negative. KJ is still very much in this race primarily because it’s a referendum on the incumbent (and of course his celebrity/name ID helps), else it would have been over by now.

Good luck on 11/4.

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Steven Maviglio wrote on October 24 2008:

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Thanks for the prediction, and the good luck. Appreciated.

Just to clarify ...

The Bloomberg statement wasn’t a “gaffe”—Jason overblew it on here. He was joking with the Mayor one-on-one, as I explained.

There’s no fudging on Prop 8. He has exactly the same position as Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Gov. Schwarzenegger. There are many people, maybe even the majority, that don’t personally believe in gay marriage but don’t believe it is government’s role to take away the ability of two people that want to commit to each other for life from doing so.

I’d agree that in the first phase of the campaign, his media relations weren’t all that good. But as Jason and others can tell you, he’s 100 percent accessible and has been since the June results were announced.

Thanks again!

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